“Despite the efforts of occultists such as Crowley to relate their order to the Hebrew alphabet, it is important to realize that the number of trumps in various early packs varied considerably, some running to nearly 100. Besides whatever educational function the trumps may have had, people were using them to play a game called ‘tarocchi’ (plural) or ‘tarocco’ (singular), a game in the same general class as bridge. Dummet says the name was first recorded in 1516, and that the French ‘tarot’ was first spelled ‘tarau.’ Before then, a common Italian term was ‘carta da trionfi.’ This variety is enough, I believe, to disprove the nineteenth century occultists’ predilection for seeing ‘Tarot’ as an anagram of Torah or the Latin ‘rota’ (wheel).
The original Italian trumps had a less esoteric flavor than those in Waite’s or Crowley’s decks. What they suggest, rather, is the mised mental universe of an educated upper-class person of the time: part Christian, part secular European, and partly flavored by the stirrings of interest in Classical Greece and Rome that gave the Renaissance (‘rebirth’) its name.” – Chas S. Clifton, “The Unexamined Tarot”
In this instance, many occultists have strongly entrenched confirmation biases:
“Confirmation bias is a tendency for people to prefer information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses, independently of whether they are true. People can reinforce their existing attitudes by selectively collecting new evidence, by interpreting evidence in a biased way or by selectively recalling information from memory. Some psychologists use ‘confirmation bias’ for any of these three cognitive biases, while others restrict the term to selective collection of evidence, using assimilation bias for biased interpretation.
People tend to test hypotheses in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and neglecting alternatives. This strategy is not necessarily a bias, but combined with other effects it can reinforce existing beliefs. The biases appear in particular for issues that are emotionally significant (including some personal and political topics) and for established beliefs that shape the individual’s expectations.” – (Wiki)
I’ve seen plenty of very reasonable people ignore all sorts of dissonant history. Keeping within the frame of the quotation above, I have met practicing Thelemites who simply will not budge from their conclusion that tarot stretches back to Egypt, initiates within the Golden Dawn who uncategorically attest to tarot’s ability to access disincarnate ‘angels’ (i.e., the Enochian hierarchies and Watchtowers), and seasoned fortunetellers who are ignorant of the whole lot of them. Nevertheless, like Socrates, if you dig a little the cracks in their models become more apparent. As noted above, the actual origins of tarot are far less arcane than many occultists might think.
Even still, I don’t think occultists are unique in their penchant for confirmation bias. Isn’t it the case that we find this principle operating in all sorts of institutions and traditions? Indeed, we might be somewhat challenged to name systems that are not prone to some sort of confirmation bias, and I think this firmly illustrates the relevance of being especially careful of our own tendencies to fall into the practice. Along these lines, I tend to strive towards a firm application of and appreciation for black swans:
The term, black swan, comes from the ancient Western misconception that all swans were white. Thus, the black swan is an oft cited reference in philosophical discussions of the improbable. Aristotle’s Prior Analytics most likely is the original reference that makes use of example syllogisms involving the predicates “white”, “black”, and “swan.” More specifically Aristotle uses the white swan as an example of necessary relations and the black swan as improbable. This example may be used to demonstrate either deductive or inductive reasoning, however, neither form of reasoning is infallible since in inductive reasoning premises of an argument may support a conclusion, but does not ensure it and similarly, in deductive reasoning, an argument is dependent on the truth of its premises. That is, a false premise may lead to a false result and inconclusive premises also will yield an inconclusive conclusion. In the nineteenth century John Stuart Mill first used the black swan narrative to discuss falsification.
Ironically after the seventeenth century “discovery” of black swans in Australia use of the term metamorphosed to connote an exception to the rule and the very existence of the improbable. Thus, the limits of the argument behind “all swans are white” is exposed – it merely is based on the limits of experience (e.g. that every swan one has seen, heard, or read about is white). Hume’s attack against induction and causation is based primarily on the limits of everyday experience and so too, the limitations of scientific knowledge. – (Wiki)
I’ve heard essayists dismiss epistemology as irrelevant, preferring instead to focus on “facts”, “science” and “what is real”. And, with a strong dose of confirmation bias in effect, trying to reason with them was simply too much to ask. When I confront entrenched confirmation bias, I tend to excuse myself from the discussion or engagement. Perhaps this behavioural strategy isn’t the easiest way to make friends, but I strive to invest my time in productive matters rather than popular ones.
How about you? In what areas of your life do you often encounter confirmation bias? How do you typically respond? How do you guard against the habit? Do you think it’s possible to be free of confirmation bias?
Additional Rabbit Holes -
Tags: controversy, history, occult, Provocations, psychology, quotations, spirituality
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elyusium
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http://twitter.com/khephir/status/8717300027 Khephra Maley
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http://twitter.com/sportingdude/status/8720623135 Sporting Dude
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elyusium
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http://llewellyntarot.net/ llewellyn tarot tell my future
